Stop Guessing Fantasy Teams. Start Modelling Them.
CricJosh.app runs a probability-weighted expected-fantasy-points (xFP) engine on top of every IPL and international fixture. We don’t write captain columns — we publish the model’s output and the inputs that drive it.
Last model refresh: see live timestamps on each tool. Methodology is open · reproducibility is the goal.
Decision Tools
Each tool returns ranked outputs from the same xFP engine. Click any card to see the model’s full ranked list, not a single tipster’s pick.
Captain / Vice-Captain Picker
Maximise expected fantasy points (xFP) — uses venue-specific economy, phase averages and match-up probability. Output: ranked C/VC list, not a binary "pick X" call.
🧮Dream11 Predictor (Team Builder)
Generates 11-player teams under the 100-credit cap with stacking and team-count constraints. All picks carry confidence intervals.
🎯Today's Optimal XI
Match-specific playing XI derived from the same engine. Refreshed once Toss + Playing XI are public. Each player shows an xFP range.
🏟️Pitch Report — Decision Output
Quantified pitch behaviour: average powerplay score, death-overs economy, dew delta. Not descriptive — model output.
📈Live Win-Probability
Polling the current run-rate against historical chase data. Returns a probability band, not a single number.
🥇NRR Scenario Calculator
Plug in remaining fixtures; receive the minimum net run rate required for any qualification scenario.
⚖️Player Match-Up (H2H)
Batsman-vs-bowler historical dot / boundary / dismissal rates with sample-size confidence intervals.
🔢First-Innings Score Range
Predicted final score range using wicket-adjusted run-rate curves for the specific venue.
IPL 2026 Season Hub
Final results, stats & season wrap-up
Documentation
Long-form notes from the workbench
Each pillar below documents one surface of the engine. They update when the model updates.
How the xFP engine works
We publish the inputs, the weights and the backtest so you can audit every number on this site. If you can’t reproduce a pick from the inputs, we don’t publish it.
Inputs
Last 60 innings per batter (park-adjusted), last 30 overs per bowler (venue-separated), phase splits, match-up H2H with confidence intervals, dew delta.
Model
Gradient-boosted regression on xFP per Dream11 scoring row. Re-trained bi-weekly. Captain / VC uplift is a multiplicative overlay, not a separate tipster layer.
Outputs
Ranked lists with point estimates, 80% confidence bands and the size of the band is published too. No single-number forecasts.
Backtest
Rolling backtest on every IPL 2024-2026 fixture. Top-2 captaincy hit-rate is tracked weekly and the current 12-week rolling average is shown at the top of this page.
What we don't do
No paid picks, no affiliate-locked content, no Telegram groups, no “VIP” tips. The output is the same for everyone.
Coverage
IPL, T20 World Cup, BBL, SA20, CPL, T20 Blast, ODI World Cup, Tests. League data refreshed within 6 hours of match end.
What this site is, and what it isn’t
CricJosh.app is a decision engine.It exists to remove the tipster’s intuition from your fantasy team selection by replacing it with a published probability model. Each tool on this site is one output of that model: a captaincy ranking, a playing XI under credit constraints, a venue score-range forecast, a match win-probability curve.
This is nota cricket news site. We don’t publish match reports, live blogs, opinion columns or interviews. For match-by-match cricket news and live coverage we link to verified partner feeds; the rest of the site is dedicated to making fantasy decisions reproducible.
Reproducibility — every number has an input
The numbers we publish are derived from three live data feeds: the official Cricsheet ball-by-ball archive (refreshed daily), the ICC / BCCI / IPL official score feeds, and the licensed Opta-Jackpot player-tracker dataset. Every model output links to the input rows that produced it. If you find a pick you can’t reproduce, mail [email protected] and we will publish a regression-test note.
Why “decision engine” rather than “fantasy tips”
A tip is binary: pick X or pick Y. A decision is a ranked list of choices with an attached probability and a confidence interval. The latter is the only thing that has a long-run expectation, and fantasy cricket is a long-run game. The captain picker returns the top 10 captaincy candidates with their xFP range and a note on which signal drove each ranking. The team today page returns an 11-player team with that week’s credit-cost curve, not a single locked XI.
Fantasy cricket in India — operating context
Paid-entry fantasy cricket contests are treated as a game of skill in India under the Public Gambling Act, 1867 and the IT Act, 2000. The states of Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Odisha, Assam, Sikkim and Nagaland currently prohibit paid entry contests; Assam and Sikkim permit them with licensing. Our tools remain usable as a free practice companion regardless of jurisdiction — see our free practice guide for entry types you can use without depositing money.
Tool index
The eight primary decision tools are listed in the grid above. The secondary tools — cricket age calculator (BCCI, ICC and district eligibility cut-offs), cricket quiz (calibration exercise that helps the model test its own difficulty calibration) and the gully scorer (a manual scoring tool for street-cricket data collection) — sit under /tools/ and feed back into the model where appropriate.
Get the weekly model diff
One e-mail per Sunday: which weights changed, which players moved in the top-50 xFP table, and what the rolling captaincy hit-rate closed at. No marketing, no “tips”.
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